Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
