It was two months ago that the Villa attacker found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as Unai Emery berated him for missing a penetrating pass. At that point, as Villa went six without a win, doubts remained if his performances were a symptom or the source for Villa's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, though, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. As the in-form star curled home his second strike to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning their opening six games, find themselves a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?
It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. The historical record, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, despite the fact the wins have stacked up.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club who have put together 10 in a row, they seem weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach looks like to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on their star man to rescue them with a couple of precise efforts. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again when facing Manchester United.
His opener came from an exquisite effort, arced precisely inside the post from a wide position. For his second proved to be a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opposition registered more efforts and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge they must confront as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting his shots into the top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Could it be a different scenario in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures might still return to peak condition.
- The main striker may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the player he showed during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to regain fitness, bolstering a sometimes shaky defence.
This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would sit third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, few could imagine the young forward now would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial England player.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed exactly since it appears so improbable. When the hero positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.
